An AT Hand – Analysis

Villain is a 20/7 over a relatively small sample.

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.comHand History Converter

MP1: $194
Hero (MP2): $205
CO: $40
BTN: $202.25
SB: $199.75
BB: $38.60
UTG: $51.65
UTG+1: $110.10
UTG+2: $200

Pre-Flop: A T dealt to Hero (MP2)
4 folds, Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, SB calls $7, BB folds

Have a pretty nitty image to this point and the players behind me are pretty tight and predictable. Seems like a good spot to be opening a hand like ATo.

Flop: ($18) 7 Q 3 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, SB calls $12

Seems like a very good board to c-bet, it is very unlikely that a tight/predictable opponent will want to continue out of position without a flush draw, or top pair or better here.

Turn: ($42) 9 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

We got called on the flop, this isn’t a scare card for him and there is no reason to think he would fold to a bet here, so just check behind and give up.

River: ($42) A (2 Players)
SB bets $32, Hero folds

An interesting card and the villain leads right into us. What hand is the villain calling the flop with and then turning it into a bluff on the river? All we have is a bluff catcher really. Did the villain float the flop out of position with a hand like TT and suddenly decide to bluff the river? Unlikely. Especially given the fact that our line looks like we have an ace in our hand a decent percentage. All in all at 200nl, your average player isn’t turning their hand into a bluff here. Why would KQ bet here for instance. It is most likely our opponent has a flush, AQ or a set.

This hand may seem totally standard to a lot of people and it is, but I think it is imperiutive not to just auto-pilot through these types of hands. You’ve got to have sound logic to back up your play, not your intuition and auto-pilot. It can sometimes be easy when you are playing bad to start leaking chips by calling these spots.

About the Author: Andrew Ferguson

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