Apr
16
2008

AK 3-Bet Pot Gets Played Back At On Co-Ordinated Board

Someone made an interesting post on 2+2 today and I ran some equity calculations and the result was interesting! So here is the hand followed by my analysis…

Villain running at 18/10/1 after only 38 hands.

Full Tilt Poker No Limit Hold’em – 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG+1: $58.75
UTG+2: $134.45
Hero (MP1): $200.00
MP2: $169.30
CO: $200.00
BTN: $321.30
SB: $97.45
BB: $208.20
UTG: $190.70

Pre Flop: Hero is MP1 with A K
UTG raises to $7, 2 folds, Hero raises to $24, 5 folds, UTG calls $17

Flop: ($51.00) K A Q (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $35, UTG raises to $115, Hero…

The equity calculations if you think he can have any AQ combo is 56% compared to 43% if only AQs is in his range and 33% if he never has AQ. More sample and 3-bet history with this guy would obviously make your equity easier to determine.

If you shove you risk $132 more to win a $384 pot. $132/$384 = 34.4% is all the equity you need to make shoving good right?… so to me that looks like a shove

Board: Ks Qs Ac

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.037% 42.71% 13.32% 6343 1978.50 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 43.963% 30.64% 13.32% 4550 1978.50 { QQ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Board: Ks Qs Ac

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.338% 25.48% 17.86% 2775 1944.50 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 56.662% 38.81% 17.86% 4226 1944.50 { QQ+, AQs+, AKo }

Board: Ks Qs Ac

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.755% 11.12% 21.63% 991 1927.50 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 67.245% 45.61% 21.63% 4064 1927.50 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

About the Author: Andrew Ferguson

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